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Case study · LEGO · Toys · 2019–2020

LEGO: the creator test, and two names to watch.

From September 2019 to May 2020 we ran LEGO China's social intelligence: monthly readouts, every campaign, every paid creator, every competitor. Two names in our December 2019 review for the CEO turned out to matter most.

Engagement9 monthsSeptember 2019 – May 2020
Campaign reports4Technic Defender, Frozen 2, Double 11, Chinese New Year
Rivals tracked monthly5plus the rest of the toy category
Framework to adoption5 days8 to 13 November 2019
The question

Which creators earn their fee, and what is really moving the brand?

LEGO was opening stores across China and spending on paid creators, livestreams and IP campaigns with Disney and Land Rover. Its China team needed to know which creators earned their fee, which campaigns worked, and what was really moving the brand against the rest of the toy aisle.

So the work had two halves: a standing test for every paid creator, and a monthly read of the whole category for the leadership team.

The creator test, November 2019
  1. 1

    Analyse and select

    Set each creator's expected reach and engagement from their quoted price and past performance; shortlist on those targets.

  2. 2

    Track

    Monitor every post on cost per thousand impressions (CPM), cost per engagement (CPE) and, where it links to a store, cost per click (CPC).

  3. 3

    Evaluate

    Score results against target, store them, and benchmark the next selection on them.

What the data said · 2019

The biggest lift came from a celebrity fan, and the real rival was not a toy major.

Exhibit 1

Wang Yibo lifted LEGO in August; Pop Mart surged in December

Share of social buzz (posts) among toy brands in China, by month, 2019

LEGOPop MartOther toy brands

Source: unrandom, monthly social analytics for LEGO China, prepared for the CEO's December 2019 review.

View the data
MonthLEGOPop MartPeppa PigTransformersHello KittyBandaiOther
Jan 201920%1%45%17%3%9%5%
Feb 201925%2%42%13%4%10%5%
Mar 201933%2%19%21%7%12%6%
Apr 201932%4%13%17%6%14%14%
May 201935%4%12%20%6%14%10%
Jun 201941%3%9%14%7%19%8%
Jul 201939%4%12%15%7%14%8%
Aug 201959%4%8%11%4%10%5%
Sep 201987%2%2%4%1%3%2%
Oct 201978%4%5%5%2%4%3%
Nov 201962%11%8%6%4%4%6%
Dec 201930%24%9%11%16%5%6%

1% → 24%

Pop Mart's share of toy-brand buzz, January to December 2019: second only to LEGO by year end. That month we named it LEGO's most important competitor in China.

  1. 1

    Paid creators carried the campaigns.

    In the Frozen 2 campaign, paid influencers drove 60% of engagement. What each one delivered for its fee decided the result.

  2. 2

    The biggest spike came from a celebrity fan.

    LEGO's share of toy-brand buzz jumped in August 2019, when Wang Yibo said on a talk show that he loved LEGO, and his fans kept it above half into November.

  3. 3

    A new rival came from outside the toy majors.

    Pop Mart's share of buzz rose from about 1% in January to 24% in December, on limited editions, collaborations with local artists and holiday drops.

  4. 4

    Douyin already led.

    In December, 68% of the engagement from LEGO's top 20 creators came from Douyin.

  5. 5

    The Technic Defender launch beat its benchmark.

    Its Weibo hashtag reached 211% more impressions than Harley-Davidson's comparable campaign, and a third of all engagement was organic.

  6. 6

    A star livestreamer's audience was not LEGO's.

    Li Jiaqi's Double 11 livestream beat his own average by 9%, but 93% of its viewers were women, face masks were the most-mentioned product in its comments, and his LEGO video ran 22% below his average.

What we told LEGO

A test for every creator, and two names for the CEO.

  1. R1
    "Analyze expected KPI targets based on influencer's proposed pricing and historical performance; filter list of influencers by comparing expected targets."

    The creator test of 8 November 2019: select on priced targets, then track and evaluate every post on CPM, CPE and CPC.

  2. R2
    "POPMART is the most important competitor in the China market."

    Our December 2019 review for LEGO's CEO: its mentions had risen from about 100 a month to 12,000 in December.

  3. R3
    "LEGO received a big boost in mentions and engagements in August due to celebrity Wang Yibo revealing his love for LEGO on a talk show. Die-hard fans took notice and continued generating buzz that sustained into November."

    The same review: the biggest lift in LEGO's share of the conversation that year.

What happened next

The record, in order.

Every entry is sourced. The tag names the call it follows; untagged entries are context.

  1. Nov 2019

    Five days after delivery, LEGO China's digital team adopts the test as its "Paid social KOL measurement framework 1.0" and grades its two 2019 Weibo creator campaigns with it: 121–126% of planned reach, at about half the benchmark CPM.

    R1LEGO China, "Making KOL Work for LEGO"[3]

  2. Mar 2020

    LEGO reports that China "grew strong double-digits" in 2019.

    LEGO Group annual results 2019[4]

  3. Dec 2020

    Pop Mart lists in Hong Kong at HK$38.50 a share and closes its first day 79% higher.

    R2Pop Mart 2020 annual results; China Daily Hong Kong[6]

  4. Mar 2021

    LEGO opens 134 stores in 2020, 91 of them in China.

    LEGO Group annual results 2020[5]

  5. Mar 2022

    More than 90 of LEGO's 165 new stores in 2021 open in China.

    LEGO Group annual results 2021[5]

  6. Mar 2026

    Pop Mart reports 2025 revenue of RMB 37.1 billion, about 22 times its 2019 revenue.

    R2Pop Mart 2025 annual results[7]

  7. Sep 2026

    LEGO names Wang Yibo its brand ambassador and launches the 玩心未眠 campaign around him.

    R3LEGO Group release, Shanghai, 14 September 2026[8]

What followed

LEGO built out China. The rival we named became a giant.

Pop Mart revenue · 2019

RMB 1.68bn

the year we named it LEGO's competitor to watch[6]

Pop Mart revenue · 2025

RMB 37.1bn

about 22 times larger[7]

LEGO China growth, 2019

strong double digits

in LEGO's words[4]

New LEGO stores in China, 2020

91 of 134

opened worldwide that year[5]

New LEGO stores in China, 2021

90+ of 165

opened worldwide that year[5]

LEGO's and Pop Mart's own published figures. LEGO works with many agencies and partners; we show these as the record that followed our work, not as our results.

Then and now

The creator test is now built into unrandom.

What took a monthly report in 2019 runs continuously today: every creator's cost per view and per engagement against market rate cards, every post ranked against similar creators, and any brand, celebrity or competitor followed across Douyin, Xiaohongshu, TikTok, Instagram, YouTube and X.

How it works →
2019 method → unrandom today
CPM and CPE grading of paid creators
Paid CPM and CPE
Creator selection on past performance
Creator benchmark
Monthly share of buzz against rivals
Tracking and Compare
Sources
  1. 1unrandom, influencer measurement framework for LEGO China, 8 November 2019.
  2. 2unrandom, monthly social analytics for LEGO China, September 2019 – May 2020, including the December 2019 review for the CEO.
  3. 3LEGO China digital marketing, "Making KOL Work for LEGO", 13 November 2019.
  4. 4LEGO Group, annual results 2019, 4 March 2020. lego.com
  5. 5LEGO Group, annual results 2020 (10 March 2021) and 2021 (8 March 2022). lego.com
  6. 6Pop Mart International, annual results 2020, HKEX, 26 March 2021 (listing on 11 December 2020 at HK$38.50; 2019 revenue RMB 1,683.4 million). First-day close: China Daily Hong Kong. hkexnews.hk
  7. 7Pop Mart International, annual results 2025, HKEX, 25 March 2026 (revenue RMB 37,120.1 million). hkexnews.hk
  8. 8LEGO Group release via PR Newswire, Shanghai, 14 September 2026.

Bring us the decision you need to make.

Entering a market, renewing a celebrity, setting a creator budget: tell us the call, and we will show you what the data says.